I won’t make any grandiose pronouncements here, but I will tell you a little bit about my investigations. Black swan events are black swan because we don’t have a good understanding of the system mechanics. As an example, technology disruption occurs overwhelmingly because executives don’t understand the market’s intentions. Imagine if you have no understanding of cars and step out into traffic. I’m using a body of modeling that I’ve created to explain the self-assembling nature of the technology markets to anticipate these events.
Here is one tidbit. I’m asserting that technology markets are self-assembling. For billions of customers to act cohesively, they must share a common roadmap (where next?) a shared understanding of market construction (even if it is subconscious) and a common communication mechanism. The challenge in identifying black swan events is in reading the shared communications and being able to correctly understand the events that are preparing to take the stage. Recognize that any event that is going to excite millions of people is not going to happen overnight. For instance, the INternet’s emergence required the additive contributions of computing, communications, networking, browsers, etc. The emergence laid breadcrumbs for years before the event.
The challenge is in being able to map the construction processes & the stimulus/response mechanisms.